Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs. Roger Federer (SUI) [6]
With 30 majors between them, this is about as big as a semifinal can get. Rafa had a somewhat close straight set win over Kei Nishikori and then struggled with Grigor Dimitrov until the fourth set. Roger Federer has looked as sharp as he’s been since winning Wimbledon 2012, taking the silver medal and then winning Cincinnati 2012.
A lot of people are saying Roger can win and some are predicting him to win. I am splitting the difference. Rafa has always had a lot of success against Roger. He beat Roger 4 times in 2013 (winning 8 of 9 sets). I think Roger can win, but the historical evidence including Nadal winning both previous encounters in Australia along with Nadal’s #1 ranking/seed means that Nadal must be the pick.
I think Roger looks to be enjoying tennis more than he has in years. He is playing with a clear purpose. He is serving well and the surface is playing faster than last year.
My Prediction: Nadal d. Federer 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, 6-4
Tennis Abides: Dan Martin on Tennis and Life 
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I think if Fed is going to do it on a big stage, this is a great opportunity, but the on paper advantage is there to the point that I can’t call it.
hi dan, i see you’re still picking against fed. well, it worked last time, so! 😉 i dont know what to think in this one. fed does seem to be riding some momentum and rafa looked so-so in his last 2 matches. so you never know! maybe fed can do it. but the odds are definitely with rafa. and 4 sets sounds about right. this is the “head” pick not the “heart” pick. hopefully i can watch it. i haven’t seen any of fed’s matches yet.