This should be a good match for many reasons.  Maria Sharapova knows she has a great opportunity to pocket a 5th Grand Slam singles title.  Simona Halep is playing the best tennis of her young career.  The two players also offer contrasting styles for viewers.  Halep has a great ground game and covers the court well.  Sharapova has a gift for taking command of points early when serving and returning.  This battle over the early control of points is where I see the match being decided.

Can Halep Work Her Way into Points?

Maria Sharapova is a practitioner of first strike tennis.  If she hits a serve with great placement or rips a return, generally the next ball or two will be played in areas of the court that Sharapova handles well.  Sharapova’s power will then typically lead to winners or forced errors from her opponent.  Halep will have to steal more than a few of the points in which Sharapova gains an early advantage if she is to win.  I think Halep is capable of doing this.

Can Halep Put Sharapova on the Defensive?

Of course, one of the best ploys against a practitioner of first strike tennis is to reverse the scenario and put that player on the defensive.  Sharapova is not known for her scrambling ability. Each of her 3 previous opponents have made Sharapova look mortal for 1 & 1/2 sets by making her play defensive tennis.  To win, someone has to make Maria uncomfortable for at least 2 sets.  Halep will need to place her serve well and dictate play when when opportunities to take command of a point are there.  I am pretty sure Halep can do this when returning, but she will need to place her serve well and not allow Sharapova to blast away.

My Prediction

I am struggling deciding on a likely winner.  Clearly, Sharapova has more experience in situations such as this.  That should be an advantage for Sharapova.  I can envision Halep making a lot of high quality returns, stealing points with hustle and fitness and this making Sharapova press.  If that happens, I think Halep wins.  I can also see Halep being overawed a bit and the trend of Sharapova losing the first set may be reversed.  If that happens, it is hard for me to see Sharapova losing.  I can also see one of the two of them eventually imposing their style of match on the other.  In short, I am confused because they are both high quality players, but they play so differently.  In a case like this, my prediction will be based more on what I see on paper and not what my gut tells me.  Sharapova is in her 3rd consecutive final at Roland Garros.  Their head-to-head record is 2/3rds irrelevant as their 2012 matches came before Halep’s step forward on tour.  Due to being 19-1 in her previous 20 matches at Roland Garros, I think Sharapova is less likely to play downright poorly for a patch in the championship match.  Therefore, my prediction is that Sharapova d. Halep 6-3, 7-6.