Preliminary Thoughts

I have been thinking about this match since Federer closed out Milos Raonic in an efficient 3 sets.  Federer entered the second week needing to play win four 3 out of 5 set matches in six days.  This was not an ideal situation for a veteran player.  Still, the fog began to lift and things generally worked out very well for Roger heading into tomorrow.  On Tuesday, he beat Tommy Robredo losing only 9 games.  Also, Rafael Nadal who poses a lot of strategic problems to Roger lost on Tuesday.  On Wednesday, Roger weathered a storm from Stan Wawrinka by splitting the first two sets.  I felt Roger would win that match one he won the second set as Stan could have blown him off the court had the first set’s vibe continued.  Federer got Thursday off and then beat Milos Raonic by surrendering only 12 games in a match that featured few rallies.  Roger should be physically fresh heading into tomorrow’s final.  The only area of concern Roger might have was a tendency to have hard games when serving to close out a set or match.  Still, he’s only been broken once in 6 matches and is riding a 9 match grass court winning streak.

Novak Djokovic was impressive in his Monday victory over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  He regrouped wonderfully after falling behind 2 sets to 1 and physically falling in his quarterfinal match with Marin Cilic.  Novak was up a set and a break versus Grigor Dimitrov.  Dimitrov rallied and took the second set, but Novak fended Dimitov off in two tiebreaks to take his semifinal in 4 sets.  Dimitrov has proven to be a great sparring partner prior to playing Roger in a Grand Slam.  At Wimbledon 2011, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeated Dimitrov in the second round in 4 entertaining sets.  He then beat Roger Federer in 5 sets in the quarterfinal round.  At the 2014 Australian Open, Rafael Nadal beat Dimitrov in 4 tight sets in the quarterfinal round before defeating Roger Federer in straight sets in the semifinal round.  Novak’s biggest concern is likely his footing.

Errors vs. a Clean Match

If Novak Djokovic can make Roger Federer execute time and time again, Roger may lose due to a rising tide of errors.  If Roger plays a single clean offensive match, he will likely win.

Djokovic handled not facing the collective will of the entire UK quite well in 2011

Serve & Return

Novak Djokovic is the best returner in men’s tennis.  Roger Federer has only been broken once in 6 matches.  These two things are not likely to co-exist.  Still, the reverse is likely to be equally important.  Can Roger pressure Novak’s serve?  Will Novak hold with great efficiency?

One could watch the whole 2012 match to check on serves, returns, & errors

Pressure?

Both men face a sort of pressure.  Novak’s pressure is more obvious.  In the past 52 weeks, Nole has been runner-up at 3 Grand Slam events and won zero of the biggest prizes in tennis.  Roger Federer has been told the window for him winning Grand Slams is closing and that Wimbledon is the last place in which he can truly contend.

On the flip side, Roger could feel free to just let it fly as he only has to play air tight tennis for 3 sets to nab an 18th major instead of 21 sets.  Similarly, Nole is not facing the pent up hopes of sports fans in the UK this year and he is not facing Rafael Nadal on red clay.  So each man may feel less stress than one would expect.

Prediction

He’ll likely have to weather a storm as he did vs. Stan, but he should have enough reserves to do just that.

I think if they played 10 times, Nole would win at least 6 or 7 of these matches.  He’s younger. He can break serve and make Roger work.  Nole was not 100% in Monte Carlo, but their other two 2014 matches were 3 set dog fights that were split between Federer and Djokovic.  I am not predicting 10 matches.  I am predicting only one, and I think Roger Federer will play a clean match and take advantage of the quick semifinal win and Saturday off to call upon a level of play that allows him to win in 4 high quality sets of tennis.  Had Raonic made any sort of dent in Roger, I’d take Novak simply because Roger will have to dig deep physically to beat Novak.  However, I think the table is set for Roger to be able to dig deep.  Federer d. Djokovic 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5