Shanghai Championship Prediction: Federer vs. Simon

Roger Federer has had a great bounce-back year in 2014.  His play in 2013 looked to be the beginning of the end for the all-time Grand Slam leader.  With improved health, a new racquet and a great working relationship with Stefan Edberg, Roger Federer finds himself in his 9th tournament final of 2014.  Roger is 3-5 in championship matches this year with his toughest loss coming at Wimbledon.  Roger’s biggest title in 2014 was his triumph in Cincinnati.  Roger is 1-3 in Masters 1000 finals in 2014.  He’ll be looking to improve to 4-5 in tournament finals and 2-3 in Masters 1000 finals in 2014.

It Won’t Be Easy

Roger should be able to dictate play against Gilles SImon, but Simon is a classic counterpuncher who wins points from tough spots and who will make Roger hit one more good shot than he normally has to in order to win a point.  Simon has played well in 2014 (ask Marin Cilic) and appears to be finding his best form in Shanghai.  Also, Roger has yet to play a day match in Shanghai, but the final is a daytime match.

I look at this as a 55-45 Match

Roger has won 4 straight versus Simon after dropping their first two encounters.  Still, those wins include a retirement from an injured Simon and two five set thrillers in Grand Slam events.  I think Federer is the favorite because he will be the one dictating the style of the match.  Simon doesn’t mind ceding that apparent advantage to his opponents.  I think the key to that advantage is that if Roger is playing near his top form, he will almost certainly grab another Masters 1000 shield.  If Roger is playing at an average or below average level, Simon will likely win.

Prediction: Federer d. Simon 7-5, 7-6

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