Davis Cup 2014: Day 3 Analysis and Predictions

I did not post anything about the doubles today because the line-ups could be changed so close to match time and because doubles is a different animal.  The remaining singles matches set Switzerland as 1 win away from a first ever Davis Cup title, but France will likely have 27,000 fans and a winnable set of matches.  I think the 4th match will be all important for Switzerland because the crowd in a deciding fifth match could be too much to overcome.

4th Match: Roger Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Federer will need to play better or hope Tsonga plays at a lower level than in July

Roger looked bad on Friday.  Jo beat Roger in their most recent match.  A lot could point toward Tsonga winning and getting the crowd support he wished he had on Friday.  Roger did play well in doubles and likely erased bad thoughts from Friday.  His back appears to be in decent shape as well.  Jo did not do a lot in the 2014 season after beating Federer in Toronto.  Tsonga did beat Federer in straight sets in 2013 at the French Open.  This match is hard to predict, but I think if Tsonga wins this match France has a 60%+ chance to win the cup.

My Prediction: Roger Federer d. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2

5th Match: Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Gael Monfils

On a neutral court, I would take Stan all day over Gael, but this is not a normal match if it matters

If this match matters, I think Monfils will ride the wave of the crowd to an early 1 set lead.  From there Wawrinka would have a huge challenge to stem the tide and claw his way back into the match.  Stan’s street fighter attitude would likely be an asset in this situation.  However, I think an inspired Monfils feeding off of a crowd might be too much.

My Prediction: Gael Monfils d. Stanislas Wawrinka 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4

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