Australian Open 2015: Day 1 Men’s Predictions

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Welcome Back as Tennis’ Off-season is Now Over

[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) – Rafa’s draw is pretty soft after this match, but I think Rafa is low on confidence and is not yet grooved.  I give Youzhny a 40% chance at the upset despite one of my loyal readers telling me that I am crazy.

[2] Roger Federer (SUI) vs Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE)  – I like Federer here.  I also think Fed will benefit from night matches.

[6] Andy Murray (GBR) vs. [Q] Yuki Bhambri (IND) – The qualifier should be match tough, but Murray is a new level of opponent.

Federico Delbonis (ARG) vs. Nick Kyrgios (AUS) – The Aussie crowd should help their big hitting hope for the future advance.

Tobias Kamke (GER) vs. Bernard Tomic (AUS) – Tomic is hard to predict.

Sam Groth (AUS) vs. Filip Krajinovic (SRB)

[10] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) vs Dustin Brown (GER) – I wish I was in Melbourne to see this one on sight.  This should be a treat for the fans.

[7] Tomas Berdych (CZE) vs. Alejandro Falla (COL) – This is not the easiest first round match for the Big Czech, but I think Berdych wins in 3 or 4.

[Q] Alexander Kudryavtsev (RUS) vs. Marinko Matosevic (AUS) 

[11] Ernests Gulbis (LAT) vs [WC] Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS) – Perhaps against my better judgment, I am taking Gulbis.

Blaz Kavcic (SLO) vs. [WC] James Duckworth (AUS)

Juan Monaco (ARG) vs. Simone Bolelli (ITA) – If ticket holders want to see good hard fought tennis, find this match on the grounds and watch it.

[20] David Goffin (BEL) vs. [Q] Michael Russell (USA) – This is another fun match in my mind.  Russell never makes anything easy and Goffin of the Shire is a rising star.

Jiri Vesely (CZE) vs. Viktor Troicki (SRB) – A 50-50 match

[32] Martin Klizan (SVK) vs Tatsuma Ito (JPN)

[26] Leonardo Mayer (ARG) vs [WC] John Millman (AUS) – I love Mayer’s game and mentality.

[28] Lukas Rosol (CZE) vs. Kenny De Schepper (FRA)

Malek Jaziri (TUN) vs. Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ) – Kukushkin is a talent.

Maximo Gonzalez (ARG) vs. Lukas Lacko (SVK)

[Q] Jurgen Melzer (AUT) vs. Victor Estrella Burgos (DOM) – Melzer is crafty and tough.

Ricardas Berankis (LTU) vs. Igor Sijsling (NED)

[22] Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) – This could be quite good if one can get court side and watch.

[WC] Jordan Thompson (AUS) vs. Joao Sousa (POR) – Can some of Spain’s successes from 1989-present spill over to Portugal?

Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) vs. Teymuraz Gabashvili (RUS) – I wanted to pick Baghdatis, but I fear his best days were years ago.

[29] Jérémy Chardy (FRA) vs. Borna Coric (CRO)

[23] Ivo Karlovic (CRO) vs [Q] Ruben Bemelmans (BEL) – Good news is that Ruben qualified – Bad news is that he has to face Ivo’s serve for anywhere from 3-5 sets

[14] Kevin Anderson (RSA) vs. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) – Big man tennis takes this one.

[15] Tommy Robredo (ESP)  vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) – This is another match that ticket holders should be sure to see.

[24] Richard Gasquet (FRA) vs Carlos Berlocq (ARG) – I can’t pick Gulbis and Gasquet on the same day.  Berlocq is entertaining, but he will have to dig in to pull an upset here.

[WC] Luke Saville (AUS) vs. [Q] Tim Smyczek (USA) – I’ll take the guy who is match tough from the qualifying rounds.

Andreas Seppi (ITA) vs. Denis Istomin (UZB)

Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) vs. Dudi Sela (ISR)

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9 Comments Add yours

  1. jane says:

    i agree with your picks dan, though i do wonder about tomic too. also wonder if duckworth might come through? sometimes the home crowd can do wonders.

  2. Hau says:

    Nadal will have a tough match!
    A lot of of prediction, however, could you tell us how sure you are about every single match (or some important matches)?

  3. kegietdragon says:

    Nadal will have a tough match!
    A lot of predictions, however, could you tell me how sure you are about every single match (or some important matches)?

    1. Dan Martin says:

      I more or less go with a gut feeling in making these picks. I use my knowledge plus a sense of momentum etc. It depends on the match in terms of how certain I am. I personally don’t bet on my gut feelings or anything else in the interest of full disclosure.

      1. kegietdragon says:

        yes, thank you Dan! I really enjoyed you preview some matches in your previous blogs and hope that your more detailed blogs will come in some next rounds.

      2. Dan Martin says:

        I’ll try to give picks for every day of the Australian Open – the degree of detail will depend on how busy life is – thanks for checking things out here!

  4. jane says:

    i got duckworth right! and i see nadal cruised through, as expected…

    1. Dan Martin says:

      Rafa may have a whole rope-a-dope thing going to downplay his chances

  5. jane says:

    dan i think that’s rafa’s normal approach isn’t it? i mean, he rarely if ever talks up his chances. but it does work to his advantage. you have virtually no pundits picking him, most thinking he is not a contender for the title so in a way that releases the pressure. arguably, there could – should? – be a lot of hype around rafa right now since he’s going for #15 – to pass Pete – and a double career slam, which would catapult him upwards in the GOAT debate in many people’s eyes. the deflection right now means no one is really writing or talking about it. which is crazy!

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