[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [6] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

This match has been talked about since Rafa’s ranking dropped to the point that it might be possible. Once the Roland Garros draw was announced, this seeming inevitability of this match has loomed over the rest of the tournament.  It is now here.  Rafa reached this point by looking quite a bit more effective than he looked throughout the European clay court circuit.  Minus losing the 3rd set to Jack Sock, Rafa has been in control of his matches.  Nole reached this point without dropping a set.  Richard Gasquet went as far as to say that Novak was playing something close to perfect tennis.  Neither man has faced a top tier player en route to the final 8.  So this match is the first major test for their title chances.

What Novak Needs to Do

Novak has to match Rafa’s willpower as he did in Melbourne 2012

Some of this depends on how much of his old self Rafa is right now.  If Rafa plays like he did in Monte Carlo, Novak simply needs to impose his will and his game on an opponent he should beat.  I think Rafa’s form and fight will both be greater than what they were in Monte Carlo, but this is a possibility.  If Rafa is at his normal level, Novak will need to use his return game to make Rafa’s serve vulnerable.  From there, Novak obviously has to serve well so as to consolidate breaks.  (Serve well and return well – Genius Analysis!)  In rallies, Novak has an ability to pin Rafa in uncomfortable spots on the court and then to either swing the ball to the other side and send Rafa scrambling or wrong-foot Rafa by hitting behind the Spaniard when Rafa anticipates needing to scramble.  Rafa has developed methods to blunt some of this tactic since their 2011 clashes, but Nole more than anyone on tour has an ability to frustrate Rafa during long and medium length rallies.  Nole will need to steal a few points when he is scrambling.  Finally, Nole will need to knock off a few volleys and not struggle with overheads.

What Rafa Needs to Do

Rafa broke Nole’s will in the 3rd set of this match. Will he do it again?

Last year, I felt after Rafa beat Nole that someone from a younger generation would have to dethrone Rafa in Paris because too much psychological damage had been inflicted on Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Ferrer, and everyone else in Rafa’s age range (or older in the case of Federer) for any of these players to believe they could beat Rafa in Paris over 5 sets.  I think Rafa needs to let Nole feel their previous encounters in Paris that date back to 2006.  Rafa leads their head-to-head 23-20, and his lead is built upon a 6-0 record vs. Nole at Roland Garros.  I order to make Nole feel the weight of some of these losses, Rafa needs to absorb a lot of what Nole throws at him and win a few points from a seemingly losing position.  This type of point theft is aided by the dimensions of Court Phillippe Chatrier.  Rafa has to send the message to Novak that the effort needed to beat Rafa is beyond what he can realistically produce over several hours.  At the 2013 US Open final, Rafa broke Nole down mentally after climbing out of a 0-40 hole to hold serve in the pivotal third set.  Similarly, Rafa grabbed a mental edge at the 2014 Roland Garros final that lasted until Rafa’s health faltered a bit late in the 4th set.  Therefore, Rafa has to find a way to bring his most healthy form to this match.

What Will Happen?

Nole has to play mentally tight tennis to do this, but I think he has the goods to do so

My hunch is that Nole is currently a champion in full.  He is playing extraordinary tennis.  I think his level of play has inspired a confidence in his abilities that will allow for him to overcome his 0-6 mark vs. Nadal on the red clay of Roland Garros.  I think Novak’s return of serve and groundstroke production will put Rafael Nadal more and more into defensive positions as the match progresses.  If rallies begin to more and more favor Djokovic, Nole will likely win the match.  I think Nole will have to be mentally airtight and not let Rafa get too much traction in terms of dictating play during the match.  Even if Nole is dictating, he will also have to deal with Rafa’s preternatural retrieving skills.  Still, I think Novak has played so well as of late that he will dictate play and not allow Rafa’s retrieving skills to break his self-belief.  If Nole believes in his game plan, he should have the advantage in this match.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Rafael Nadal 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3