[8] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) vs. [14] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)

Close Head-to-Head Series

Both men have the ability to hit through a slow court and an opponent.  Their head-to-head is dead even at 3-3, and interestingly, 5 of their 6 career meetings have come on clay.  Wawrinka leads the clay court series 3-2 winning their two most recent matches on dirt.  They have met twice at the French Open with each man claiming a 5 set victory over the other.  All but one of their matches have gone the distance. Therefore, I am predicting a close match.

Expect power

Their Games: Power Brokers

Both guys have big serves that set up their offense which often consists of bludgeoning the ball. Wawrinka boasts one of the best one-handed backhands on tour.  Tsonga is a more natural volleyer of the two.  Each man can crush a forehand.  Stan’s return game is tricky because he is hard to ace.

X-Factor: The Crowd

France has not had a male Grand Slam winner since 1983.  If that streak is to be broken, Tsonga will need a lot of support from the crowd.  I expect a raucous crowd.  If conditions are hot as they are predicted to be, the court won’t play the way it did for Wawrinka versus Federer.  Tsonga would probably prefer something other than heavy conditions.  If Tsonga gets out to a fast start, the crowd may be a tidal wave for Wawrinka.  In Wawrinka’s favor is the fact that he beat Tsonga in 4 sets on clay in front of a French crowd, to get the first of Switzerland’s three winning Davis Cup points last fall.  That match was the only match in their series not to go to a deciding set.

Expect power and at least a few backhand winners

Stan’s The Man?

Wawrinka played quite well in London last fall before losing a contentious match with Roger Federer in the semifinal round.  Stan was the Swiss MVP versus France in a winning Davis Cup effort last fall.  Stan won a 250 level title in India heading into his defense of the Australian Open this year.  Stan then pushed Nole as hard as anyone in Melbourne before losing in 5 sets in the semifinal round.  Stan won Rotterdam and an argument could be made he was playing the second best tennis in the world.  Then Stan went off the rails for whatever reason (I am not going to speculate).  Stan’s win over Rafa in Rome and win over Federer in Paris may mean he is back to his early year form.  If so, Tsonga is in trouble.

What I think Will Happen

Like the other semifinal, these competitors mirror each other to a degree.  They both prefer power to subtlety on the court.  I expect to see some heavy hitting.  I also think that Stan has more heft to his game than Nishikori so he won’t be bullied.  I think Stan has more grit in his mental game than Berdych. Therefore, I think Stan reaches his second grand slam final and in the process disappoints many French fans.

My Prediction: Stanislas Wawrinka d. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 7-5, 5-7, 7-6, 6-3