Novak Djokovic leads Andy Murray 6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 3-3

How did we get here?

We know Djokovic dominated the first two sets and seemed to be on track for a straight set win when Murray saved two break points.  The crowd eventually shifted, Murray stiffened his back, and Novak missed a few volleys and hit some ill timed drop shots.  Once that happened Murray won the 3rd set 7-5.  Djokovic failed to convert 3 early break chances in the 4th set.  Murray then broke Djokovic at love to take a 2-1 lead in the 4th set.  Murray missed a very makable overhead and was broken back for 2-2. Each man held at deuce with Murray saving 2 more break points and the tournament director put a stop to the action due to impending rain.

The 4th set has already had a lot of ups and downs

Where are things headed?

Tennis is clearly a psychological game as well as a physical and mental game.  Still, I think tennis has to be played and shots have to be made.  Djokovic and Murray have many similarities as players, but I think Novak is slightly better in multiple areas of the game.  Over time, that should favor Novak.  In a one and a half set scenario for Murray, he can win.  However, I think the better player is more likely to win (stunning analysis I know).  Therefore, I like Novak to win the match in 4 or 5 sets so long as he does not lose the 4th set in a manner that would cause Nole to lose his nerve.  They are both walking on a tight rope, but Novak is closer to the finish line and has more paths to victory than Murray.

Jim Valvano would be good in a situation such as this

Coaching Teams and Their Psych Jobs

Both players employ two main voices in their team of advisors.  Marian Vajda could speak to Novak about any technical issues he saw in Novak’s game.  Vajda will also point out anything he saw as a technical weakness in Murray’s game.  Boris Becker will likely draw upon his playing experiences dealing with rain delays and lost leads.  That does not mean in my mind that Becker will regale Novak with tales from the 80s and 90s.  I think Becker will try to remember what would have been helpful to him in similar situations and do that.  If that is Becker telling Novak corny jokes or playing chess with him, that is what Becker will likely do.  Murray’s coaching team is harder to predict because Jonas Bjorkman’s role is not entirely clear as compared to Amelie Mauresmo’s role.  Murray will get a similar technical breakdown, and his coaching team will also draw upon their experiences to try to do what is best for Murray psychologically.  Each man is in good hands, but Novak’s team has been in its current state a bit longer so this may be a slight advantage for the world #1.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic wins 6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 Both men have a lot on the line.  Novak has a chance to continue  his quest for a career Grand Slam.  Murray has the opportunity to win his first major since July 2013 and to break a 7 match losing streak against Novak Djokovic.  Mentally both players have reason to be kicking themselves prior to the resumption of play.  Novak had chances to put the match on ice in the 3rd set.  Novak has broken one of Murray’s 3 service games in the 4th set, but had chances to break in the other two games.  Murray led by a break in the 4th set and played a terrible game to consolidate the break.