US Open 2015: Roger Federer vs. Stan Wawrinka Semifinal Prediction

Roger Federer vs. Stan Wawrinka

This is another great semifinal match-up.  The Davis Cup teammates and 2008 gold medalists in doubles will lock horns for a shot at the US Open final.  Roger Federer has worked his way through 5 matches without dropping a set.  Stan Wawrinka claimed his second major title earlier this year in Paris and is six sets away from claiming a 3rd piece of the career Grand Slam puzzle.

In terms of momentum, Roger Federer is clearly ahead.  Federer won Cincinnati and has dominated his draw.  In terms of firepower, Wawrinka is second to none and can blast anyone into submission.  Federer’s job will be to prevent as many points from possible from going Stan’s way.  Federer has to keep the ball out of Stan’s hitting zones by varying placements and spins while also attacking Stan when possible. Wawrinka’s job will be to minimize Federer’s wizardry through the application of blunt force trauma to the tennis ball.

One could say this is a classic battle of a boxer versus a puncher, but part of Federer’s plan for frustrating Stan’s power will be to put Stan on the defensive.  Part of Stan’s plan has to be to defend well when forced to defend and to judiciously attack while keeping his first serve percentage high and not spraying errors.  Both men played at a high level during quarterfinal matches.  This match could be an instant classic.  I see it as a coin flip and each guy knows the other’s game quite well.  So I won’t spend too much more time breaking down what each player and his camp already know better than I do.  My pick is predicated on this surface speed allowing Roger to attack more freely than he could during their encounter on red clay under heavy conditions at Roland Garros earlier this year.

My Prediction: Roger Federer d. Stan Wawrinka 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5

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