Metz 2016: Thiem vs. Pouille Championship Prediction

Dominic Thiem vs. Lucas Pouille

This should be a very fun match.  Thiem has been carving out space on the tour for the past 18 months plus and made a nice run to the Roland Garros semifinal round. Pouille gathered a lot of attention for his 5 set win versus Rafael Nadal at the 2016 US Open. In this new more physical era of tennis, both men have to be considered younger players worth watching on tour.  So which of the young guns will prevail?

I think Pouillle has some advantage as this event is being held in France.  Thiem has an advantage in that he has won 7 career titles including 4 this year while Pouille is still seeking his first career singles title.  My head says Thiem wins and in a fairly routine manner.  My gut says Pouille plays at a high level and grabs his first career title on French soil.

In cases like this, I do not flip a coin.  What I do is look at their head-to-head which Pouille leads 1-0 in a clay court match as well as look for other factors.  I would not put a ton of stock in a clay court match being predictive of this encounter.  Still, Thiem had the longer semifinal match and has perhaps over played in 2016.  If Pouille is physically more rested, that may be the difference.

My Prediction: Lucas Pouille d. Dominic Thiem 6-4, 4-6, 6-3


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