Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alexander Zverev
This match brings the 2020 US Open runner-up into contact with a man who has reached his 3rd consecutive major semifinal. Neither, will be favored in the final, but both players are formidable. Both also played well in the tune-up season with Tsitsipas grabbing a Monte Carlo title and Barcelona runner-up finish while Zverev won Madrid.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has a 5-2 lead in their head-to-head series. Tsitsipas also own a win in their only clay court meeting. In this sense, Tsitsipas has an edge.
There is another area in which I think Tstsipas has an edge. I believe his 15-2 record at the previous two majors plus this event has him poised for a first major final. If the US Open 2020 revealed anything about Zverev, it was that Alexander Zverev may have some issues with pressure situations. He could have grown a lot since then, but until he proves that in a major I think the question marks will remain.
My Verdict: Tsitsipas is Rightfully Favored
Both guys are tall and can play offense on a soft clay court. Both men are mobile and can defend when necessary, but each prefers to dictate play rather than retrieve or counter-punch. Confidence and momentum seem to be in Tsitsipas’ corner. Ghosts of 2020 remain in Zverev’s as far as I can tell. Zverev nearly bombed out of the US Open semifinal despite being heavily favored. He then stormed to a 2 set and 1 break lead in the championship match. He also had break leads in the 5th set before losing. Whatever granular differences I might see in terms of technique, movement, defensive skills, etc., I think Zverev is not yet ready to advance to another major final. For that reason, I am picking Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3.