March Madness in the United States is a beloved sporting event crowning the end of the NCAA basketball season. It is marked by upsets. Tennis upsets are harder to come by due to the sheer number of points needed to win a single game let alone a set or match in tennis. For good or ill, No-Ad Scoring and Match Tiebreaks make upsets easier.

My podcast is forthcoming, but here are the numbers:

Percentage of Points Needed to Win a No-Ad Game in Tennis

at love – 100% (4-0)

at 15 – 80% (4-1)

at 30 – 66.7% (4-2)

at Deuce – 57.1% (4-3)

Percentage of Points Needed to Win a Traditional Game in Tennis

at love – 100% (4-0)

at 15 – 80% (4-1)

at 30 – 66.7% (4-2)

1 Deuce – 62.5% (5-3)

2 Deuces – 60% (6-4)

3 Deuces – 58.3% (7-5) – Also, the minimum threshold to win a set tiebreak

4 Deuces – 57.1% (8-6) – The same percentage of points needed to win a no-ad game

5 Deuces – 56.25% (9-7)

6 Deuces – 55.56% (10-8) – Also, the minimum threshold to win a match tiebreak