Federer is the Easy Pick

Roger Federer is playing for history and won last week in Basel.  Fed had the easier semifinal.  Federer clobbered Tsonga at the US Open.  This all points toward Roger winning in Paris.

Not So Fast – Tsonga Has Reason for Hope

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has had a strong 2011 especially from his play at The Queen’s Club forward.  Tsonga beat Nadal en route to a 3 set runner-up loss to Andy Murray at The Queen’s Club final .  Tsonga beat Federer from 2 sets down to reach the Wimbledon semifinal round.  His semifinal match with Novak Djokovic was an acrobatic display of hard fought tennis.   Tsonga’s semifinal run in Canada also saw him defeat Federer.  He did lose to Federer in New York, but a quarterfinal showing at the US Open is further evidence that Tsonga is a legitimate top 10 player. Winning Vienna in a tight final over Juan Martin del Potro and reaching the final here in Paris after saving 3 match points versus a game John Isner tell me that Tsonga is the #5 player in the world for 2011 regardless of what the rankings say. Throw in French fans, and Tsonga has a great shot at this title.

Why I am Still Picking Federer

I will not be shocked or even surprised if Tsonga wins, but Roger Federer is playing with more swagger than he has at any point in 2011.  Federer’s indoor prowess is obvious given his career and 2010 results on indoor courts.  The win in Basel last week and match wins in Paris have Roger feeling good about his game. Federer always has fans so Tsonga’s crowd edge will be a bit blunted as well.  Beyond all of that, each man played a match on Saturday.  Tsonga will have to play better than he did in the semifinal round to beat Federer. So based on most recent form, I am picking Roger to take home the big trophy with a score somewhere along the lines of 6-3, 7-6.