I have had some difficulty the past 8 days with predictable access to the internet. This is not great timing for a Grand Slam, but life does what it does sometimes. In tennis news:
I am picking Andy Murray to win 6-3, 5-7, 7-5, 6-4.
- I know Djokovic is 33-1 in his past 5 Hard Court Slams
- I know Novak beat Murray down under and in Miami this year
- I know Novak is playing some of his best tennis of 2012
I think Murray will win for 3 reasons:
- It is time. Murray has reached his 5th slam final. He’s due. He played pretty well at Wimbledon and won Olympic Gold by beating Novak and Roger back-to-back (yes on grass but still…).
- Ivan Lendl has paid off as coach. Novak is in his 3rd consecutive US Open final and 4th overall. Lendl reached 8 consecutive US Open finals. Lendl will give Murray good advice on both a plan A and a plan B in this match.
- The only way to end the trend of Monday finals that started in 2008 is for the man who lost that final to take home a US Open title. Federer won in 08 and had 4 other US Open titles. Delpo beat Fed in 09 who already had 5 titles. Rafa beat Novak in 2010, and Nole beat Rafa in 2011. The only Monday finalist to not have a US Open crown is Murray.
Close to a 50-50 Match
On paper, Novak is a slight favorite. Point three’s numerology was a disaster of a point. These two guys are incredibly quick and have tremendous return games. I think the winner will be the player who serves better to minimize the return pressure of his opponent. Murray ended the Olympics with multiple aces. I think mentally he is ready to have a day where his game clicks and have a match where he is confident that he has the goods when he goes to the well for a big shot.
My Head says Novak in 4
My Gut says Murray in 4
My Heart says a Match of Equal Quality to their 2012 Australian Open tilt.