Wimbledon 2013: Murray vs. Janowicz Prediction

Jerzy Janowicz (POL) [24] v Andy Murray (GBR) [2]

Jerzy will need to surpass this winning effort to beat Murray at Wimbledon

Andy Murray was always a player with a lot of nuanced wrinkles in his game, but many observers felt he lacked the aggressiveness to win in the biggest events.  2012 proved that Murray could win the biggest prizes in the sport.  Jerzy Janowicz is the contemporary embodiment of attacking offense-oriented tennis.  Janowicz’ game lacks the variety of Murray’s.  Jerzy will miss some ground strokes and returns that Murray would routinely handle.  However, Jerzy is going to create quite a contrast with the instinctive counter-puncher in this clash.

Keys to the Match: Ivan Lendl has worked with Murray on being more aggressive.  If Murray dictates play in a given point, he has a great chance to win that point.  Murray will need to have a high first serve percentage to keep Jerzy from pressuring his second serve.  Murray will also need to be ready to go from defense to offense in points.  Counter-punching against Janowicz is fine so long as Murray is actually punching.

Janowicz will have to play even better than he did against Murray in Paris last fall.  He won that match, but Murray served for the match and lost a very winnable matchpoint.  Jerzy hit a lot of drop shots in that match.  Against a player with the speed and feel of Murray this is not a great strategy.  I think a straight-forward power-based attacking strategy will serve him better than trying to win on cute shots.  Serving huge is also a big key for Janowicz as Murray is a top flight returner.

Prediction:  I am sticking with my initial call of Janowicz winning this match, but the Paris highlights (a match Jerzy won mind you) make me think he is going to have to play his best match of the tournament to beat Murray.  I am picking Jerzy Janowicz to defeat Andy Murray and break many hearts in the UK by a score of 7-6, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6.

5 Comments Add yours

  1. Mike Swanquis says:

    You have to think that Murray will be playing a bit tighter here than he would be against Novak in the final. Still, hard to say what kind of nerves Jerzy will be dealing with…

    Here’s to hoping your call of a Nole-Pole final is correct!

    1. Dan Martin says:

      Yeah, nerves are a real unknown for Jerzy. I think he can do it, but he’s the underdog.

  2. bdhorse says:

    Jerzy is undoubtedly very talented but Murray will have waaay too much firepower for him. Andy v Nole final on the cards, shocked if its anything else.

    1. Dan Martin says:

      After watching a match in which Jerzy won vs. Murray, I think Jerzy has his hands full. Earlier in the event I picked Jerzy to reach the final so I have to stick with that though.

      1. jane says:

        well jerzy acquitted himself well methinks. he was up in the third set. who knows? if he were older perhaps he could have taken that set? he’s definitely one to watch but andy’s experience pulled through.

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