Wimbledon 2014: Predicted Gentlemen’s Semifinalists

The Draw is Here – One oddity is that the top 4 seeds all have a Wimbledon final victory over one of the other top 4 seeds: Djokovic d. Nadal 2011 final, Murray d. Djokovic 2013 final, Federer d. Murray 2012 final, Federer d. Nadal 2006 & 2007 final, Nadal d. Federer 2008 final

I Got 3 of 4 French Open Semifinalists Correct – I missed on Gulbis, but I did not pick Federer so I felt good about my skills of prognostication.

Novak Djokovic’s Quarter

  • Due to Wimbledon’s seeding formula, Novak Djokovic gets the top seed.
  • Radek Stepanek who was a semifinalist at The Queen’s Club is not an ideal 2nd round opponent for Nole
  • Mikhail Youzhny has a draw and surface in front of him that might help him keep his top 25 ranking longer than one might expect.
  • Ernests Gulbis should reach at least the 3rd round
  • Tomas Berdych’s 2010 Wimbledon runner-up included a semifinal win over Novak Djokovic.
  • Bottom Line – Novak Djokovic should reach the semifinal round – If he is licking wounds from Paris, maybe someone else reaches the semifinals.

Andy Murray’s Quarter

  • David Goffin is a fun player with a lot of talent.  Murray should win this first round match though.
  • Kevin Anderson could be a dangerous opponent for Murray.
  • Roberto Bautista Agut has had a breakout 2014 and is in his first ever grass court final as well.  I still don’t see him challenging Murray if they face-off.
  • Grigor Dimitrov is fresh off of his win at The Queen’s Club.  He also beat Murray in Mexico earlier this year.  This could be a great quarterfinal match, but Dimitrov has to overcome what happened in Paris.  He has to find a way to win a few early matches.
  • David Ferrer’s section of this draw is pretty wide open.
  • Bottom Line – Andy Murray has won 19 of his past 20 grass court matches.  If he is healthy, his serve, his return, his speed and his touch should allow him to get through to the semifinal round.  Dimitrov could push Murray in the quarterfinal round if that match come into existence.

Roger Federer’s Quarter

  • Roger Federer won 3 singles matches in Halle and played doubles to the final round as well.  If Roger can return serve better than he did in 2013, he has a chance to make a run.
  • Stanislas Wawrinka is on paper the hardest player outside of the top 4 seeds, but his game seems to be quite off since he won Monte Carlo.  I’d be surprised if he reaches the quarterfinal round.
  • Lleyton Hewitt could have an interesting match with Jerzy Janowicz in the 2nd round. I would not bank on either player let alone both players surviving the 1st round though.
  • To my mind, John Isner is not going to win this event, but who wants to play him?
  • Feliciano Lopez has reached two consecutive grass court finals.  Keep an eye on him.
  • Bottom Line – This quarter all comes down to Roger Federer’s return of serve.  If he can break serve and pressure his opponent’s service games, he has a great chance to reach another Wimbledon semifinal.

Rafael Nadal’s Quarter

We got to see each of the top 4 seeds win and lose Wimbledon

  • Rafael Nadal has reached 5 Wimbledon finals and has lost his last 3 tour level matches on grass.  Nadal said last year that fresh grass is hard on his knees.  #Hardtopredict
  • Milos Raonic reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros.  Do not be shocked if he reaches his first Grand Slam semifinal in London.  Still, his movement on grass is a question mark.
  • Ivo Karlovic had a nice French Open.
  • Can Kei Nishikori stay healthy?
  • Richard Gasquet has had some success at Wimbledon and is in a grass court final tomorrow.
  • Bottom Line – I have no idea, but I have to make a pick.  I think Kei Nishikori wins five matches and reaches the semifinal.  

3 Comments Add yours

  1. jane says:

    hey dan… have to say i think you might be wrong on rafa’s quarter. i think it’s all part of the toni/rafa plan this year to take the pedal off the metal somewhat in the clay season (except FO) and then go all out on grass. they are trying to reach goat-dom so they want to surpass fed at all costs and time is of the essence. i tend to agree with contador’s thoughts on this at t-x. so if i were picking a bracket i’d probably pick rafa over murray in the final. not sure about nole’s wrist and with his wedding around the corner, i am not sure how motivated or focused he’ll be. as for roger, well i think he makes the semis like you but i think rafa will be waiting there to take him out. you never know though. those are my 2 cents worth. 😉

    1. Dan Martin says:

      I think Nadal is impossible to predict as his recent grass form is bad, but his career grass achievements are obviously great. So I agree he could come out to the final four or better.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s