Breaking the Trend

Novak Djokovic finished 2012 as the #1 player in the world, but only captured 1 of the 4 majors.  In 2013, Novak went 24-3 in Grand Slam play and Rafael Nadal went 12-1.  Despite twice as many Grand Slam match wins as Nadal, Rafa ended the year with a US Open and French Open title and the #1 ranking while Nole had an Australian Open title and 3 near misses.  2014 seemed to be a continuation of that storyline minus an Australian Open safety net.  Novak lost in 5 sets to Stanislas Wawrinka in Melbourne, he won 3 Masters 1000 events prior to a somewhat subdued 4 set loss to Rafael Nadal in the Roland Garros final.  His tough matches with Stepanek, Cilic and Dimitrov could have signaled that Novak is great in ATP Tour events and is likely to go deep in Slams, but not quite reach the finish line.  Today’s win reversed that trend and as Novak regained the #1 ranking while Nadal has a boatload of points to defend between now and the close of the US Open.

Breaking the Trend was not Easy

Roger Federer with his 7 Wimbledon titles, movement that works well on grass, new partnership with Stefan Edberg and his 9 match winning streak were not ideal for claiming a 7th slam title and ending some bad streaks in major finals.  Federer played well in the 1st set, but Novak played better.  Nole was holding more easily and rebounded from an early mini-break to have set point on his serve at 6-5 in the breaker.  Federer held firm and got to 6-6.  Novak had a second set point, but was this time returning.  Roger won both his service points and cashed in his first set point.

Federer’s what if moment may come with the 30-0 lead to start the second set that devolved into Novak breaking his serve and fending off any first set momentum Roger might have.  Nole still had to save his first break point of the match when serving for the first set at 5-4, 30-40.  The 3rd set seemingly replayed the first with Novak pressuring Roger’s serve, Roger answering well enough to hold and a tiebreak ensured.  Nole winning that tiebreak had me thinking the match was his.

Nole was up 2 sets to 1 and really should have won the first set.  He got an early break in the 4th set.  Cue the trophy right?  Well Roger broke back immediately.  Then Nole broke Roger again.  That’s it right?  Well not exactly as Roger managed to break Nole when he served for the match and then to break him again at 5-5 and then serve out the 4th set.

Anyone thinking that Novak’s five set loss to Murray at the 2012 US Open, his 5 set loss to Rafa after leading by a break in the 5th set at the 2013 French semifinals, his losses to Murray, Rafa, Wawrinka and Rafa at the next 4 slams were not weighing on Novak needs to consider that he nearly failed to serve out the 2nd set and twice lost a break lead in the 4th set.  Jim Courier was never the same after absorbing 2 Grand Slam final losses in 1993.  Novak has absorbed 5 Grand Slam final losses since his dominant 2011 campaign.  He also absorbed US Open final losses in 2007 and 2010.

Novak’s win today likely ended what could have been a crippling trend.  He won 3 sets when he really could/should have won all 5.  Anyone who has played tennis knows that self-doubt is no easy opponent.  Roger Federer being 1 set away from winning his favorite tournament when he was on the ropes made the 5th set that much more dramatic.  Novak now has a Wimbledon title, 3 Masters 1000 titles and heads into a section of the season played on a surface that meshes with his game.  This win makes Novak the early favorite to win the US Open.  I’ll revisit that idea after the hard court prelims and Masters 1000 events have been played. For now though, Novak is riding high.

For all of you saying Djoker isn’t a legend .Stop it. 6 slams (Mac 7, Connors, Agassi 8) wins as of now. Still in his prime…. Just stop

— andyroddick (@andyroddick) July 6, 2014

History Questions: What does this win mean for Novak?  What does Roger’s runner-up finish mean?

Novak was already a Hall of Fame tennis player.  6 major titles, a lot of Masters 1000 success, a long period of time being ranked #1, Davis Cup success and of course a Bronze Medal in 2008, make Novak a legend as Andy Roddick tweeted.  A 7th Grand Slam title and a return to #1 have Novak leap frogging Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg and Mats Wilander.

Federer’s GOAT credentials would have certainly been reinforced by an 8th Wimbledon title.  It would have made Roger the most decorated champion in Wimbledon history and given him an 18th major title.  Still, his grass court season helped his legacy in incremental ways.  He picked up a title in Halle and more importantly reached his 25th Grand Slam final.  The race and debate between Roger and Rafa is still going to rage.  Roger could have quieted it a bit with a win today, but Roger may very well leave London thinking that his days of winning slams are not over.  With Rafa and Roger still being moving targets, I am not sure what else can be said in this debate, but my guess is that both whatever can be said and whatever shouldn’t be said will be said in the Fedal debate.

Having said all of that, I’d like to say a bit more about the new #1.  Novak is 1 slam away from equaling Connors, Lendl and Agassi’s total of 8.  I think if he gets to 8, he will be obviously clear of Agassi due to his better performance at the World Tour Finals, surpassing Agassi’s time at #1 and having more Masters 1000 titles than Andre.  Connors and Lendl’s consistency and longevity (Agassi had longevity but lacked consistency from 1988-1998) makes overtaking them harder, but a 9th major would be the easiest way to leap frog those two great champions as well.  Novak and his career are still full of possibilities.