Monte-Carlo 2015: April 17th Quarterfinal Predictions

Predicted Winners in BOLD

[6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) v [4] Milos Raonic (CAN) H2H – Milos leads their head-to-head 3-1, but all of the matches have been fairly close and none of the 4 were on clay.  I think Milos is currently playing big matches better than Berdych has in recent months.  Therefore, I think Milos wins in 2 or 3 tight sets.

[9] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) v [WC/14] Gael Monfils (FRA) H2H – Well Monfils’ sparring session in the round of 16 should be good preparation for Dimitrov.  Monfils has won the only relevant match in their 3 head-to-head meetings.  On paper, Gael should win.  Grigor has reasserted himself thus far with solid victories helping his Q rating.  I think Gael can win this match, but throughout his career Monfils has seemingly been on the cusp of something better than being simply dangerous.  Monfils has never really moved beyond that category and until he does, I can’t pick him to play high-level tennis on a sustained basis.

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v [8] Marin Cilic (CRO) H2H – I picked against Cilic in the round of 32 and round of 16.  He should be happy I am doing so again.  What won’t make him happy is Nole’s level of play.
[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) v [5] David Ferrer (ESP) H2H – This is much closer to a 50-50 match than I think most people realize.  Rafa historically has dominated both Ferrer and Monte-Carlo.  Recent form suggests a harder match than their head-to-head might indicate.  In Rio, Ferrer clearly was sharper than Nadal.  Ferrer was awesome in his 2015 Latin American swing winning Rio on clay and Acapulco on hard courts.  Ferrer also took the title in Doha to start the year.  Ferrer has had a better 2015 to this point than Rafa.  @Clutchon&win, a twitter friend, has been bold and picked Ferrer – see below.  I will not go quite that far, but in part because I want to see Nole and Rafa in the semis.  I am picking Rafa to advance in 3 long sets.
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