The first meeting between these two comes in the first ever Istanbul final. Cuevas has reached 3 clay court finals in the past 2 seasons. He took a title earlier this year in Sao Paulo. He also just soundly beat Grigor Dimitrov who provides ideal sparring prior to facing Federer. On this surface does Cuevas have a chance? Sure. Will he pull the upset? No. Roger Federer is in his 4th tournament final of 2015. Roger is likely to win this match because of his variety, his experience, and his overall excellence. Trying to give reasons for Federer being the favorite in this match almost seems silly. He is the favorite. He might be beaten, but I think a win here might give him some momentum for Paris without taxing him the way a deep run in Madrid and Rome would.
My Prediction: Roger Federer d. Pablo Cuevas 6-4, 6-3