[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [2] Roger Federer (SUI)

What can be said?  #1 vs. #2 in the last big event prior to Roland Garros.  Federer won the French Open in 2009, but has been where Novak is as a dominant #1 missing one big trophy.  Djokovic knows Federer can gum up his clay court game when all is going well as we saw in Paris in 2011.  Djokovic has not looked great in Rome, but he is the defending champion.  Federer has yet to lose a set this week, but has not faced a true clay court player since round 2.  Federer has never won in Rome and this is a prestigious tournament.  Roger would certainly like to add Rome to his trophy case although he does not need it for his legacy.  Nole would love to win his 4th Masters 1000 event in 2015 and 6th consecutive Masters 1000 event.  The match looks epic on paper, but both men are also keeping one eye on Paris.

The Case for Roger

Roger and Nole have seemingly traded victories recently.  Nole won most recently so Roger may be due. Also, Roger seems to be playing his best clay court tennis since 2012.  Roger battled his way through Istanbul, but he never looked comfortable.  In Rome, Roger has beaten Anderson, Berdych, and Wawrinka consecutively.  Roger’s slice backhand helps him vs. Nole.  His forward play, even on clay, can help him take the initiative in a manner few do versus Djokovic.  Roger might mix spins, placements, and net approaches just enough to win this match.

The Case for Nole

Novak is the clear world #1.  He is physically strong.  He is younger than Roger, and this surface tends to favor younger legs if most things are equal.  Novak’s return of serve is the best in the business.  He will eventually get into Roger’s serve and take the match to the bank.  Novak also can send a message to the world that he is #1 and no one is taking it from him for a long time.  If Novak wins, he would have 6000 ranking points from Melbourne, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Rome in 2015.  The momentum from Rome may be helpful in Paris, but I think locking up #1 for 2015 may allow Novak to play freely for the rest of the year.

Nothing New

Each player knows what he wants to accomplish on the court.  Each man knows what the other will try to do.  This match will largely come down to how well Roger can take care of his serve.  On this surface versus Nole’s return, that is a tall task.  This all leads to my prediction in which I am going with my gut over my head.  I think Roger wants a title in Rome before he retires.  Nole has looked out of sorts all week.  I think Roger finds a way to win this match even if he has no business winning it on paper.

My Prediction: Roger Federer d. Novak Djokovic 7-5, 7-5

Also, I think Becker may feel Novak left his best tennis on the courts of Rome last year, and Becker may have Nole seeking to peak in Paris.