Novak Djokovic vs. Stanislas Wawrinka

One can never bank on an instant classic, but tennis fans would not complain if we get one

A Fun Rivalry

These two have put on some absolutely classic Grand Slam duels.  In 2013, Novak took two five-set brawls in Melbourne and New York.  In 2014, Stan reversed course and upset Novak Djokovic in 5 sets en route to his lone Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.  This year in Melbourne Novak defeated the defending champion in 5 sets along the way to his 5th Australian Open title.  Their rivalry is numerically pretty lopsided.  Stan won 2 of their first 3 encounters and has lost 15 of 16 since.  Their first meeting came on clay, and Stan won when a young Nole retired mid-match.  Novak has won their other 5 clay court encounters, but their most recent match on dirt came in 2012 on blue clay.

Blue clay because I love what it looks like

The Tennis

Djokovic and Wawrinka do not play the same style of tennis.  Djokovic is an aggressive player, but he is also willing to counter-punch and retrieve.  Wawrinka wants to take command of a point as quickly as possible with an imposing serve and groundstrokes that send tennis balls to the ER from blunt force trauma.  Each man boasts one of the best backhands in tennis, but their mechanics are entirely different. Djokovic is the best return man in the sport.  While Stan has the better serve when taken in isolation, Novak’s service game has become increasingly air tight as he backs up excellent service placement with laser precision on his ground strokes.  Stan is not a lumbering player, but he does not move as well as Novak.  Stan hits through the court as well as any player on the world.  The contrast in their talents makes this a fun match for fans, but Djokovic has generally held an advantage.

Stan will fight without fear

Mentality

Confidence should not be an issue for Wawrinka or Djokovic.  Stan has posted clay court wins over men who have combined for 31 Grand Slam titles this clay court season and brushed back a French hope in the semifinal round.  Stan also seems to love playing against the Big 4.  This is a trait shared only by Nick Kyrgios as far as I can tell.  Novak Djokovic is riding a match winning streak that dates back to his loss to Roger Federer in Dubai and includes 4 Masters 1000 titles and 6 wins in Paris thusfar.  Novak won Monte Carlo and Rome by posting wins over the same two players who have combined for 31 Grand Slam wins. Novak dominated Rafa in Paris in addition to his win over Nadal at Monte Carlo.  Novak also withstood a challenge from a game Andy Murray.  Based on this clay court season, rankings, and history, Novak beat the other two most likely winners this year in Roland Garros back-to-back to reach the final.

This surface should give Novak an extra split second when returning

What I Think Will Happen

Stan Wawrinka deserves a lot of credit for beating Federer and Tsonga consecutively.  Neither player is known for his return game.  Novak will present a different challenge to Wawrinka.  If Wawrinka allows for 17 break points versus Nole, Djokovic will win the match.  Stan got frustrated at one point vs. Gilles Simon when Simon was making improbable gets to extend rallies.  I think Novak does that every bit as well as Simon does, but has a lot more offense in his game as well.  In short, I think Novak will either play enough offense to keep Stan from dictating the match or he will play enough defense to get leverage in the match.  Novak having multiple paths to victory will be the difference.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Stanislas Wawrinka 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3