US Open 2015: Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer Championship Prediction

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Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer

The world #1 and world #2 have met 5 times in 2015.  Each match was in a tournament final, and Djokovic leads their 2015 head-to-head 3-2.  Novak won their biggest 2015 match in four sets at Wimbledon this year.  Federer won in Dubai and Cincinnati where the courts tend to play faster and the ball tends to bounce lower. Indian Wells, Rome and the post 2001 Wimbledon play more slowly than the US Open courts.  The surface speed should be an advantage for Federer.

Their Games

The public knows each player’s game.  More importantly, Federer and Djokovic know what to expect tomorrow.  Federer is attacking the net more often and implementing SABR at times.  Nole has improved his serve, net play, and overhead in the previous few years.  Federer is serving quite well this summer.  Novak has the best return in tennis.  I think this is where the match will be won or lost.  At Wimbledon, Federer had a hard time making an impression on the Djokovic service game.  Not because Novak was blasting aces at every turn, but because Nole was backing his solid serving up with such airtight ball striking as to make a service break unlikely.  If Federer serves better than he did in the 3rd and 4th sets at Wimbledon and returns better, the Fed will likely win his 6th US Open title.  If Federer does not, Novak will likely win his 2nd US Open title.  I generally like the player with fewer ifs needed for victory to win.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Roger Federer 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4

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