World Tour Finals 2015: Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer Championship Prediction

Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer

This is the main event to end the non-team competition portion of the 2015 tennis season.  The computer may say that Andy Murray is #2 in the world, but Roger Federer is clearly the second best player in the world at this moment.  Novak Djokovic defeated Roger Federer in the championship matches at Wimbledon, the US Open, Indian Wells, and Rome.  Roger Federer defeated Novak Djokovic at Cincinnati, Dubai, and in a round robin match earlier this week.  Novak leads their yearly head-to-head 4-3, and won the two biggest matches they contested this year. Roger has to feel more confident than many would having won on this exact court earlier this week.

What Each Player Needs to Do to Win

Roger Federer has to serve extremly well.  He needs aces, service winners, and easy put away shots in order to minimize Novak’s abilty to counterpunch. Roger needs to take some risks when approaching the net and believe a few stab volleys and the pressure such approaches create will lead to winning a majority of these risky net rushes.  Roger also needs to hold his own in longer points and points in which he is scrambling.  Roger won’t win a majority of these points but he needs to win a decent percentage of them.

Novak Djokovic needs to take care of his own service games.  If he does this, his return places even more pressure on Roger.  Novak needs to be prepared hit quality passing shots and lobs in pressure packed points. Novak also needs to control Roger’s court placement with great depth to cut down on the angles, spins, and net rushes Roger can realistically generate.

Who Wins?

Roger is 8-1 in sets played and 4-0 in matches played this week.  He beat Novak in a less meaningful round robin match.  He has as good of a shot as anyone to win a big final versus Djokovic.  He did this at Cincinnati, but Novak turned him back in two Grand Slam and two Masters 1000 finals in 2015.  The world #1 has earned his dominating spot in the rankings by generally winning big matches.  The odds favor Novak Djokovic to win this match.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Roger Federer 7-6, 6-4

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