Australian Open 2016: Milos Raonic vs. Gael Monfils Quarterfinal Prediction

Greatest lost point ever?

[13] Milos Raonic (CAN) vs [23] Gael Monfils (FRA)

This is the match of the day among the male and female quarterfinalists.  Milos has played incredibly well in 2016 taking a title in Brisbane by knocking off Roger Federer, running through 3 rounds in Melbourne, and beating 2014 Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka in 5 sets to reach this quarterfinal.  Raonic has a huge serve and a willingness to compete.  He had a promising 2014 that led me to see him as the cream of the crop among the 20-25 year old players on tour.  An injury filled and forgettable 2015 made me revisit this position.  I think what I have seen in 2016 reaffirms his 2014 status.

Does that mean Gael is French toast so to speak?

No.  Gael has flown under the radar to reach this quarterfinal slot.  Gael is a difficult opponent to prepare for because he can play great offensive tennis, but his game is built around uncanny and explosive defensive play.  If Gael takes care of his serve, the match shifts toward being a 50-50 match or slightly in Gael’s favor.

To me this match comes down to that simple question of how tidy is Gael with his service games.  I think conservatively we can expect Milos to hold serve at least 4 times per set.  If Gael is getting broken 1 out of every 4 or 5 games he serves, Milos is likely to reach his second major semifinal.  If Gael can hold serve often enough and steal a few points on Milos’ serve with his unreal ability to make something out of nothing, Gael is likely to reach his second major semifinal.

My Prediction: I think Milos’ momentum and form lead him through a close match.  Milos Raonic d. Gael Monfils 7-6, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6

 

Will it be another game/set/match for Milos?

 

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2 Comments

  1. This should be a great match-up between Milos Raonic and Gael Monfils. It’ll be the power of Milos against the French flash and flare of Monfils. It’s going to be fun to watch to say the least but I have to give the advantage to Raonic. He’s playing the best tennis of his life, beat Federer in Brisbane, and of course won a huge 5 setter against Wawrinka in the last round. Looks to be a popular pick as well by some sportbooks too (http://topbet.eu/news/milos-raonic-vs-gael-monfils-predictions-picks-odds-and-tennis-betting-preview-january-26-2016.html). I predict Milos in 4 sets! Other thoughts?

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