I pretty much agree with both my tweet (shocking!) and with Howard Bryant. On Friday, I told someone, “If Tsitsipas serves well, hits spots that set him up well. He has a 40-45% chance of winning. If he doesn’t serve well, I think he has less than a 10% chance of winning.”
I would add Bryant’s point about Novak returning well. If Djokovic is returning well, he’d have to have a lot of other things go wrong to lose.
Mental Outlook – Both Players Have a Lot of Reasons to Feel Good
Tsitsipas has to be feeling good. He is 16-2 in his 3 most recent majors. He came through with a clutch hold from 0-40 in the first game of the 5th set. He won Monte Carlo, played well in Barcelona, and is in the final here. He went 5 sets with Djokovic at the 2020 French Open semifinal. He can win.
Tsitsipas also talked about fighting for his home town. I think having a lot to play for, even more than for a 1st slam, is a must because history is calling Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic is 3 sets away from being the first man in the Open Era to win a double career grand slam. In an era of Nadal, winning a French Open is hard to do. Winning it twice, would put Novak into a class of his own. Similarly, a 19th major would put Novak on the cusp of tying Rafa and Roger. Novak Djokovic is aware of history in a manner similar to that of Roger Federer. As a tennis history buff, I like that about each of them. I think Novak knows what is so close to him. I expect that will help him to play better tomorrow.
My Prediction
Novak Djokovic d. Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Tennis Abides: Dan Martin on Tennis and Life 