Predicted Winners in BOLD

Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

My thoughts: Muchova has been playing much better over the past 52 weeks resulting in a huge difference in their computer rankings. They are in the same place in the draw, but I have to believe the ranking system has enough validity to predict Muchova advancing. 

[2] Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina 

My thoughts: These two also have a ranking difference, but Svitolina just won her first tournament since becoming a mother. Momentum is nothing to ignore. Still, Sabalenka won the 2023 Australian Open and has to be viewed as the favorite. This could be a 3 set classic though.

 

[3] Novak Djokovic vs [11] Karen Khachanov  

My thoughts: With Nadal not playing the 2023 French Open, one would think the two-time champion and four-time runner-up who first reached the French Open semifinal round in 2007 would be the clear favorite. Yet, his clay court tune-up difficulties in 2023 have kept some of the pressure off of Djokovic as the draw has unfolded.  

Djokovic has won 4 matches without dropping a set and put himself into the final 8 at the French Open for the sixteenth (!) time in an unobtrusive manner. Khachanov is a talented player, but this surface should favor Djokovic as he likely moves within 2 matches away from a 3rd Roland Garros and 23rd major title.  I expect Djokovic to win in 3 or 4 sets.    

[1] Carlos Alcaraz vs [5] Stefanos Tsitsipas

My thoughts: This along with the Sabalenka-Svitolina clash looks to be the highlight of the day. Tsitsipas is no doubt the underdog. Alcaraz is #1 in the world and has accumulated a lot of clay court wins this season. One of those clay court wins came against Tsitsipas in Barcelona earlier this year. In fact, Alcaraz has never lost to Tsitsipas holding a 4-0 head-to-head advantage. 

Yet, Tsitsipas came within one set of winning the 2021 French Open. He plays his best tennis on clay. He also was runner-up at the 2023 Australian Open. The 5th seed is the worst possible draw for the #1 seed in the quarterfinal round. All of this adds up to Stefanos Tsitsipas having a chance to throw a shockwave into his favorite tournament. If Tsitsipas can play freely and not allow Alcaraz too many opportunities to change the direction of the ball during rallies, an upset could occur. Still, Alcaraz has won 9 of 11 sets played against Tsitsipas with all of their matches coming at either Masters 1000 or Grand Slam events. Expect Alcaraz to advance in 3 or 4 sets to set up the 2023 version of Tennismagedon versus Novak Djokovic.