3Victoria Azarenka vs. 7Sara Errani - Based on clay court form, I’d take Errani, but I think the 2013 Australian Open champion and the World #1 are on a collision course. Azarenka in 2 close sets is my pick.
Men’s Semifinal Matches
2Roger Federer vs. Benoit Paire - Federer beat Paire easily in Madrid. I think this match will be closer, but Roger should advance in 2 close sets.
5Rafael Nadal vs. 6Tomas Berdych - This is the match of the day. Nadal should win. Still, Nadal has lost two matches on clay in 2013 and has dropped 2 sets to Ferrer and 1 set to Gulbis over the past two events. I have been bullish on Berdych’s form throughout 2013. I think Nadal will win in straight sets, but if any of these four matches is going to be an gem it is this one.
I will put my bias out there and state that Roger Federer has been all-time my favorite tennis player to watch since 2003. I like his game, his balance, his shot making etc. I also will bluntly say that Roger is not playing near his career best 2006 level, or his 2004-2007 level, or his 2009 level and to this point not near his 2012 level. Roger has been off in some tournaments this season. Close losses to Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych are expected of a 31 year old. Some of his other stumbles have been uncharacteristic. Add in a reduced schedule and suddenly a tennis crisis emerges.
Overreaction Central
Roger Federer lost as defending champion in Madrid after skipping Monte Carlo and Miami. Peter Bodo among others pronounced that Federer was slipping and that even his safe haven of grass might come under assault. In reality, Federer has lost Halle finals to Lleyton Hewitt and Tommy Haas in recent years. He lost a two set lead to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Wimbledon in 2011. He lost in straight sets to Andy Murray in the Olympic Gold Medal round in 2012. All of this happened on grass. Roger is not running a grass court streak like he had from 2003-Wimbledon 2008. Federer might lose a few matches on grass in 2013 and that does not mean he is finished anymore than his 2011 loss to Tsonga ended his hopes of winning Wimbledon again.
Similarly, if Roger has a nice event in Rome, it does not mean he is back to his 2009 clay court form. Today, Roger Federer beat Gilles Simon on clay. Federer was once 0-2 in his career matches vs. Simon. He wins 6-1, 6-2 on his worst surface against a man who has troubled him. Is Federer back (or is this a silly question) after being given last rites on his flight out of Madrid? One match or one event is just not smart for judging a veteran and legend of the game. Short term analysis will lead to Federer looking like a yo-yo.
Where Things Stand
The fact is that Roger Federer is 31 years old. He undoubtedly has nagging injuries like all players on tour, but his recovery time is likely slowing from what it once was. He is still ranked in the top 4, but to this point in 2013 is playing as though he is roughly the 6th best player on tour. Tommy Hass has won two titles in the past 52 weeks, upset the world number one, and made a serious run at a title in Miami. Federer is four years younger than Haas. Roger Federer is scheduling himself as though he is not terribly concerned about his ranking. This may be a mistake as his 2012 form seemed to benefit from playing with greater frequency than he had in 2010 or 2011. Then again the benefit of being ranked in the top four only materializes if the other three players do the same. Federer learned that Nadal is just as deadly in the quarterfinal round as he is during the final weekend of an event.
Nevertheless, Federer seems to be aiming toward being physically at his best heading into the biggest prizes in tennis. This may or may not result in an 18th Grand Slam title, but I would not doubt the method too much. Roger Federer is not the force of nature that he once was on tour. He is still a player capable of winning big matches. Federer will need circumstances to break his way more than he once did, but so long as his hunger to win big titles is still there he will be relevant in 2013. His coach Paul Annacone saw Pete Sampras win Wimbledon in 2000 when his draw opened up enough to reach a championship match on a bad leg.* Sampras also won the 2002 US Open as the 17th seed. A lot had to go right for Sampras to win those two events, but he was hungry enough to take advantage of the opportunities that did eventually present themselves. Undoubtedly, Annacone is preaching the same message to Federer who is not yet taking on water to the degree that Sampras was in 2002. With Nole and Nadal playing so well, it is not as easy to see a draw breaking wide open for Federer, but to say eulogize his career is just giving into sensationalism.
* Gimelstob, Bjorkman, Gambill and Voltchkov were not a murderers row of opponents.
** This sense of overreaction is not limited to Federer. Nole left Dubai with some wondering if he would duplicate his record setting start to 2011 and post his best year ever. After Indian Wells and Miami, some felt Djokovic looked worn out. He then wins Monte Carlo by beating Nadal and a calendar Grand Slam is discussed. Then he loses to Dimitrov in Madrid. Is Nole clearly #1 or slipping? Hyperbole is the name of the game for analysts these days.
This match is pretty straight forward to predict. If things go according to form, Nadal should win. Wawrinka is riding a big winning streak and playing the best tennis of his life. Here are 3 keys to Wawrinka pulling an upset.
Stan must serve well. The altitude in Madrid benefits the server and Wawrinka getting free points is a must.
Stan’s backhand has to hold up to pressure. Rafa has won a lot of big matches against one-handed players by forcing high bounding shots into the backhand wing over and over again.
Stan will have to weather some storms. He overcame Tsonga saving 3 match points and forcing a 3rd set. He held up under pressure versus Berdych as well. Rafa is going to have good runs during this match. Stan has to bend but not break in these portions of the match.
Having said all of that I pick Rafa to win 7-5, 6-4 – Either way Stan will enter the top 10 in my next Power Ranking
5 Rafael Nadal vs. Pablo Andujar – If Andujar is ever going to win against Rafa, this is his chance. Nadal played 2 tough sets and a 3rd set versus Ferrer. Nadal is also seemingly a little rusty. The altitude in Madrid has never been to Rafa’s liking. Still, I don’t think anyone sanely picks an upset here.
6 Tomas Berdych vs. 15 Stanislas Wawrinka – Berdych to this point inb 2013 has outplayed Roger Federer and looks like a top 5 player. Wawrinka is on a serious roll. This is close to a 50-50 match, but I think Warinka is currently playing the best tennis of his career.
Semifinals
1 Serena Williams vs. 7 Sara Errani - Serena seems ripe for an upset, and Errani could do it based upon her runner-up finish at Roland Garros in 2012. Recent form seems to have little impact on how Serena will play in a given situation. I think Williams is close enough to the finish line in Madrid to win this semifinal.
2 Maria Sharapova vs. 16 Ana Ivanovic - Ivanovic has put together some decent results at different times since her brief stint at number one. I hope she gets back to the top five, but I am not going to bank on such a rebound at this stage of her career.
Quarterfinals Kei Nishikori (14) vs. Pablo Andujar - A great match for tennis lovers, but I think Andujar will be more fresh and as I said earlier I love Pablo’s game.
Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6) – I think clay helps Berdych here. He can hit through the court whereas Murray’s shots may sit up more.
David Ferrer (4) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Numero uno en Espana es Rafa! This will be closer than Acapulco was though.
Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori - Federer has had a mediocre 2013 by his standards. He also has points to defend. I expect Roger to advance, but a loss would not be shocking.
Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon - In 2008, Simon looked like Murray’s mini-me. This could go either way on clay. I still think Murray advances.
David Ferrer vs. Tommy Haas - A rematch of their Miami semifinal. Haas just won a tournament, but Ferrer on clay in Spain has to be the pick.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco - My first upset pick for May 9th’s slate of matches. Tsonga nearly beat Nole at Roland Garros last year and pushed Rafa in Monte Carlo this year. Still, clay favors Verdasco who needs a signature win.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov - This match is worth the price of admission. Wawrinka just won a tournament beating #4 David Ferrer in the final. Dimitrov took a set off of Rafa at Monte Carlo and beat Djokovic in Madrid. I think Wawrinka’s momentum helps him hold off Dimitrov, but the youngster is making waves.
My first distinct tennis memories are matches between Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe in the 1982 Wimbledon men’s championship and the 1984 US Open semifinal. Both were five set thrillers, but I did not start following tennis regularly until Boris Becker won Wimbledon in 1985. French Open matches did not make much of an impression on me until 1987. For that, I must thank Steffi Graf.
1987: Boredom with the Big Two
Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova staged a tight three set French Open final in 1986. At 10 years of age, I was a bit bored by how frequently these two met in big matches. I recall Steffi Graf pushing Navratiolva hard at the 1986 US Open and thinking this is who I will pull for in women’s tennis. Graf beat Navratilova 6-3, 6-2 in Miami as she started 1987 off on a tear. Graf moved to #2 in the rankings pitting Navratilova and Evert against one another in a semifinal rather than a final. Navratilova beat Evert 6-2, 6-2 to reach the final while reversing two consecutive French Open championship losses to Evert. Graf beat another new face in Gabriella Sabatini 6-4, 4-6, 7-5. This set up a match that I hoped would usher in a new queen of women’s tennis and end the dual reigns of Martina and Evert.
Maybe Tiriac had it right – this video feed from the red clay and non-high definition cameras is awful
Half of my wish came true. Graf won her first Grand Slam title by beating Navratilova 6-4, 4-6, 8-6. Graf won in large part because of how error prone and nervy Navratilova was in that match. Graf showed mental fortitude by winning a long third set against a great champion, but this was not a dethroning. Martina would beat Steffi in straight sets to win both the 1987 Wimbledon and US Open titles. It was exciting for me as a young fan to see my favorite player win her first major, but I feel a bit silly looking back at my disdain for the excellence that Navratilova and Evert displayed. Then again I was 10 years old.
1988: Double Bagel
Steffi Graf won the 1988 Australian Open, but beat Evert instead of Navratilova in the final. Graf was ahead on computer points due to playing and winning far more events than her veteran rival, but it was still unclear as to who was the best player on the women’s tour. Graf owned the #1 ranking and reigned in Melbourne and Paris. Martina was the titleholder in London and New York. Navratilova expected to win Paris and said as much. Instead she was shocked by the former #1 junior player Natalia Zvereva. The young Russian put off a Graf Navratilova showdown until Wimbledon 1988 by winning 6-3, 7-6. As shocking as the match was, Graf administered a career altering defeat of Zvereva by winning the championship match 6-0, 6-0 in 32 minutes. Graf now had two legs of the Grand Slam under her belt and the debate about #1 was clearing up to a degree. Her win over Martina in London one month later cleared up any doubts about who the #1 player in tennis was.
My memories of this final all revolve around how quick the match was. I was elated to see Steffi win yet another slam. Zvereva went on to become a highly decorated doubles champion, but this loss seemed to sap the joy out of singles for her for many years. Zvereva saved two match points in her semifinal win and perhaps a big upset followed by a win and a close loss in the French Open semifinal round would have served her better than being demoralized by Graf who was quite invincible that day.
1989: No One Saw It Coming
Steffi Graf won the Golden Slam in 1988. She opened 1989 with a convincing defense of her Australian Open title. Some wondered if she would become bored with tennis due to her dominance. If Graf was going to be beaten in 1989, people figured it would be her contemporary Gabriella Sabatini via a herculean effort. This was not to be as Sabatini lost in the round of 16. Graf played a youngster named Monica Seles in the semifinal round. I remember in the first set thinking how ridiculous it was that Seles was trying to overpower Graf. That strategy seemed about as wise as trying to drown the ocean. Graf won the first set 6-3. In the second set, the player hitting two-handed backhands and forehands (!) did knock Graf out of her comfort zone and took the set 6-3. Steffi’s experience pulled her through in the third set with another 6-3 set. Still, Seles looked like a champion to me.*
Challengers Arise
Graf faced Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario in the final. Graf was taller, had more weapons and seemed like a lock. Sanchez-Vicario kept running balls down. NBC tape-delayed coverage foreshadowed the upset by saying Graf only makes headlines if she loses. However in the age before widespread internet acces, I had no idea who won the match. NBC showed the first set won surprisingly by the Spaniard 7-6. NBC then did a quick summary of the second set won by Graf 6-3. In the final set, I watched as Graf sprayed a number of errors against her never-say-die opponent. I was both dismayed and shocked as Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario pulled one of the upsets of the decade in a 7-6, 3-6, 7-5 win over Steffi Graf.
Attacking the net helped the tireless retriever win the match
This match was not the end for Graf, but Seles attacked Graf’s slice with power. Sanchez-Vicario made jaunts into the net off of Steffi’s backhand as well as drawing errors from her forehand. There was now a book with several chapters on how to play against the invincible champion. Steffi from 1987 through 1989 took me as a fan through a ride of challenging the powers that be, to becoming the lone power in women’s tennis and finally to being dethroned in Paris. Graf would have to wait until 1993 to win the French Open again. It was a great ride as a fan. Steffi also provided a few more French Open memories that I will get to in the coming days.
Tyson losing to Douglas was a lot like Graf losing in this situation
* In early 1990 when everyone was hyping Jennifer Captiati, I kept thinking that Seles was the real story.
