Umag 2017: Championship Prediction – Lorenzi vs. Rublev

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[4] Paolo Lorenzi (ITA) vs [LL] Andrey Rublev (RUS)

This is a battle of a seeded player in his mid 30s in his 4th career final looking for his 2nd career title versus a player in his late teens who entered the draw as a lucky loser playing in his 1st career tour level final.

Does this favor either player?

Lorenzi knows what to expect in a final and has the confidence coming from being seeded.  Roblev has the mental edge of knowing he has earned at least 150 ranking points at an event for which he did not firectly qualify.  A big trophy and 250 points would be better than a runner-up finish, but Rublev has very little to lose.  Lorenzi may be playing in the final tournament final of his career.  More pressure is on Lorenzi, but he has the maturity to handle that.

Match Up

Rublev’s power is a distinct edhe.  Lorenzi is a solid mover for his age and plays a classic loopy clay court forehand with a dependable backhand.  If Rublev is clicking, he will likely overwhelm the veteran.  2017 has generally not been a year for breakthroughs though.  I think the veteran plays steady enough to grind out a 2nd career title.  Rublev will leave town with 150 points he didn’t expect.  A non-zero sum outcome?

My Prediction: Lorenzi d. Rublev 6-3, 7-6

 

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