Australian Open 2015 – Djokovic vs. Murray Championship Prediction

Confession

I am a fan of tennis as well as an observer.  During the US Open last year, it dawned on me that Djokovic vs. Murray was my favorite match-up of the Big Four.  My reason is that I like the type of points they play against each other, and I love their ability to break back and rally in a given set.  They are not clones.  Murray has a bit more feel, and Novak is better on the forehand wing.  However, they are both so quick that no point or lead seems safe.  It is just an enjoyable match-up from my perspective.

2014: 4-0 or 0-4

Murray won several big matches versus Novak Djokovic in 2012 and 2013.  He won an Olympic semifinal match that helped Murray claim gold and combined with a loss to Delpo pushed Novak out of winning a medal.  Murray won is first Grand Slam title defeating Novak in 5 sets at the 2012 US Open final.  He then won Wimbledon in 2013 delighting the UK.  Murray entered 2014 coming off of back surgery.  In 2014, Djokovic won 4 matches vs. Murray winning 9 of 10 sets they played.  I do think recent history can impact both players’ confidence level.  Murray has to feel like his 6-0, 6-1 loss to Roger Federer in London was an eternity ago.  Djokovic however will be confident heading into this match because of his recent dominance versus Murray.  Djokovic is always a hard opponent, but when he is confident he can be nearly unbeatable (see 2011).

What to Expect

Since both men play in a similar manner, I don’t think either will mind if their preferred style of play and preferred patterns prevail.  So expect each player to test the other’s second serve, movement, and nerve.  There should be a lot of points in which a player seems to be on the defensive only to use great speed to reverse the momentum of the rally.  I do think Novak will also test Murray’s forehand and attempt to be positioned closer to the baseline than Murray.  That may be the key to the match.  Can Novak establish a slightly better court positioning than Murray?  If so, Djokovic will probably win.  If not, Murray may win in his 4th trip to the final.  Djokovic has a chance to give himself the best possible chance in another campaign to end a year ranked #1.  Andy Murray can win a 3rd major and perhaps set himself up to make an assault on the top ranking and achieve #1 for the first time in his career later this year.  This should be a great match between two future hall of fame players.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Andy Murray 6-3, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4

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7 Comments Add yours

  1. django says:

    I agree. I think Novak will win this based on 4-0 and h2h

    1. Dan Martin says:

      He controlled Murray over the past 12 months so that should help his mentality

  2. jane says:

    hope you’re right dan, but am very nervous. feel like all signs are pointing to an andy win. that could be my paranoia / pessimism. but it’s just how it feels. i hope no matter what that nole plays much better than in the semis!! :O

    1. jane says:

      thanks for sharing django

  3. django says:

    I think andy will win wimb or Uso not both

    1. Dan Martin says:

      I think he has a mental hurdle or two to clear, but he is playing good tennis and can win either or both event(s).

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